Let’s say that if I were going all-out, I could have run a single mile in 5:40 (you’re supposed to actually do it, of course, not guess). I haven’t done this one yet, but just to give an example: In my last 5K, I ran the first mile in 5:53. The result is your marathon pace per mile, in seconds. Then to predict your marathon time, take your mile time (in seconds) and multiply by 1.3. Run one mile as fast as you can, middle-school style (don’t barf or die, though). And the great thing about his method is that it’s simple, albeit painful. Galloway’s Magic Mileįormer Olympian and current coach Jeff Galloway (the walk-run guy) has his own method for predicting race times, and not just marathons. Here’s a link to Runner’s World’s take on Yasso’s. If you can do 10 of these 800’s, slowly jogging for that same amount of time between each (3:10 for me), then this method predicts you can run your marathon at the corresponding hours-and-minutes time! A lot of people say that Yasso 800’s are too optimistic a prediction time, so adding five minutes to the time you predict is probably a good idea. Sounds complicated, but it’s not! Since I need to run the marathon in 3 hours, 10 minutes to qualify for Boston, my 800 pace becomes 3 minutes, 10 seconds. Replace hours by minutes and minutes by seconds to get your 800 meter pace. These three marathon prediction methods well help you do that, and avoid the race-day disaster that so many runners experience. You need a better idea of how fast you can reasonably expect to run. And a good rule of thumb is that for every minute too fast that you run the first half of a marathon, you’ll lose two minutes in the second half. The problem is that you didn’t know what you were capable of and had no idea how fast to run. What happened? You were so disciplined in your training, and you tried to listen to your body on race day. By 17, you’re not sure you can even finish the race. By Mile 16, the idea of a quick walk break sounds great. For the first time, you notice your legs feel heavy. And then disaster strikes.Īt Mile 15, it hits you. You’re rocking your first race, and everything is great. You cross the halfway point five minutes faster than you had planned based on your training pace. You’re running a little faster than you’ve trained, but hey, it’s race day, and you’re charged with adrenaline. Let’s say you’re cruising through your first marathon.
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